Ходжа Н. (hojja_nusreddin) wrote,
Ходжа Н.
hojja_nusreddin

Прогнозирование (Scenarios for the Future of Technology and International Development, 2010)



4 very different futures:


1. LOCK STEP – A world of tighter top-down government control and more authoritarian leadership, with limited innovation and growing citizen pushback
2. CLEVER TOGETHER – A world in which highly coordinated and successful strategies emerge for addressing both urgent and entrenched worldwide issues
3. HACK ATTACK – An economically unstable and shock-prone world in which governments weaken, criminals thrive,
and dangerous innovations emerge
4. SMART SCRAMBLE – An economically depressed world in which individuals and communities develop localized, makeshift solutions to a growing set of problems

CONTENTS

Introduction...............................................................8
WHY SCENARIOS?.......................................................9
WHY TECHNOLOGY?....................................................10
THE FOCAL QUESTION..................................................11
ENGAGING YOUR IMAGINATION.......................................11
The Scenario Framework.............................................13
CHOOSING THE CRITICAL UNCERTAINTIES............................14
GLOBAL POLITICAL AND ECONOMIC ALIGNMENT.....................15
ADAPTIVE CAPACITY ..................................................15
THE SCENARIO NARRATIVES..........................................17
Lock Step..........................................................18
Clever Together...................................................26
Hack Attack.......................................................34
Smart Scramble...................................................42
Concluding Thoughts..................................................49
Appendix.................................................................51

________________________________________________
by The Rockefeller Foundation and Global Business Network (GBN), 2010
http://www.bibliotecapleyades.net/sociopolitica/sociopol_rockefeller10.htm
http://www.rockefellerfoundation.org/uploads/files/bba493f7-cc97-4da3-add6-3deb007cc719.pdf
Tags: предсказанье, технология
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